Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings warned of ‘$120’ for oil in 2024.
While Fitch Ratings increased its oil price forecast for 2024 to $120 per barrel due to the disruptions in oil supply that the tension in the Middle East may cause, it warned that higher than expected oil prices may cause lower economic growth and higher inflation.
In Fitch Ratings’ Global Economic Outlook (GEO) Report, published in September, it was predicted that oil prices would average 75 and 70 dollars in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
In its analysis published today, the agency examined the impact of high oil prices on underlying growth and inflation over 2024-2025 in the GEO report, taking into account geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
In this context, Fitch Ratings predicts that oil prices will rise to 120 dollars per barrel on average in 2024 due to supply constraints that may arise due to geopolitical tension, and predicted that this figure will be 100 dollars in 2025.
While it is estimated that global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may be 0.4 percent lower in 2024 and 0.1 percent lower in 2025 due to higher than expected oil prices, the effect of high oil prices on inflation is short-lived and may be lower than expected in 2025. This increase is expected to be partially offset by lower inflation rates.
An oil price shock linked to tensions in the Middle East could lead to tighter monetary policy and financial conditions, lower business and consumer confidence, and corrections in financial markets.
It is estimated that a shock of up to 10 percent in share prices could cause global GDP to be 0.6 percent lower next year and 0.5 to 0.9 percent lower in the US, Japan, the Eurozone and the UK. is being done.
After the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the barrel price of Brent oil rose to 94 dollars in international markets. The barrel price of Brent oil is traded at 81 dollars as of 16.58 TSI.