Bitcoin holders can’t wait any longer for BTC price action to become interesting again. However, the promising forecasts are showing signs of a trend change. However, analysts’ views on Bitcoin’s direction differ.
Opinions diverge on Bitcoin price bottom
Bitcoin (BTC) continues its more sideways movement near $16,800. BTC took the holiday period step by step. Thus, the dwindling volumes had no impact on the market, which was already muted and experiencing its lowest volatility on record. With a few trading opportunities in the last week of ‘Do Nothing December’, analysts are trying to prepare the ship for possible headwinds. The analyst, nicknamed Rekt Capital, says in a new post:
If BTC fails to retrace around $17,150 as support before the end of the year, then BTC will set the $13,900-17,150 range as the new playing field. Therefore, at worst, a drop to the $13,900 Low Range is possible for BTC. This means a 20% reduction from current prices.
Rekt Capital cites an earlier theory involving support levels on a one-month BTC chart.
BTC explanatory chart / Source: Rekt Capital/TwitterThe analyst, nicknamed Crypto Capo, insists that a new macro drop is yet to come. Thus the analyst remains a popular claim among new negative reviewers. In this context, Crypto Capo makes the following statement:
I think most bears are waiting for 10k ignoring all support before this level. $11,000-13k is a very strong support to hold.
However, another popular trading account, Profit Blue, is sticking to its warnings that $10,000 will mark the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market in response.
BTC caption / Source: Crypto CapoAnalyst countdown to volatility return
Meanwhile, in terms of breaking the agonizing low volatility status quo, there is a potential glimmer of hope for market participants from trader Elizy. The analyst says, “BTC movement is approaching… I think in the next 48 hours.” Elizy adds to her comment a weekly BTC chart with significant support just above $13,000.
BTC explanatory chart / Source: Elizy/TwitterWhen will Bitcoin return to ATHs?
According to a recent tweet by crypto analyst Ben Armstrong, Bitcoin is currently at the level he expects it to be, namely the $16,800 region. The analyst predicts that by the end of next year, BTC will again approach the 30,000 level. As for the possibility of a rise to ATH levels, according to his tweet it is likely to happen by the end of 2024.
cryptocoin.com As you follow, according to the predictions, the next Bitcoin halving will take place in 2024. In a tweet published earlier today, Armstrong emphasizes that he believes BTC will rise after halvings, where miners start producing half as much BTC from each block. “Of course, none of this is a guarantee. However, these are my views,” he adds.
As we head to the last week of 2022, #Bitcoin is exactly where I thought it would be.
By the end of 2023, I believe $BTC will be making significant moves close to $30k again.
By the end of 2024, heading back to all time highs.
End of 2025, back to bear market.
— Ben Armstrong (@Bitboy_Crypto) December 26, 2022
Bitcoin halving happens every four years. The last one was in early May 2020, when the pandemic spread around the world. It did, however, reach two new all-time highs in 2021, not that year. This is largely because the Federal Reserve has lavished dollars on the market, releasing more than $6 trillion into the economy in the form of ‘survival controls’. As for the price Bitcoin could reach once it hits an all-time high, BitBoy shared its “knee back reaction.” According to the analyst, this price is $120,000.
Where do you think the #Bitcoin top will be for the next cycle?
I haven’t fully decided where I stand here. We could get the reversal of diminishing returns.
But my knee jerk reaction is $120k.
Drop your estimates below ?
— Ben Armstrong (@Bitboy_Crypto) December 26, 2022
What could be the signal for a Bitcoin (BTC) return next year?
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin holders should be looking for a signal that will signal the end of the extended bear market for BTC. The analyst notes that Bitcoin’s current percentage of decline from its all-time high is approaching a level that marks the bottom of the 2018 and 2014 bear markets. In this context, the analyst makes the following statement:
Bitcoin is in a 75% lower range than the ATH level. So it’s kind of like in between. Not at last summer’s levels. However, it’s also not as low as it has historically gone… If months go by and you see Bitcoin’s percentage of decline from ATH really starting to match what you saw in previous bear markets, that would at least be a sign that things will finally start to turn.
Source: Benjamin Cowen / YouTubeAccording to the analyst’s chart, Bitcoin fell over 80% from the ATH level in the bear markets of 2014 and 2018. At the time of this writing, BTC is standing 75.6% below its peak in November last year. The analyst is also watching closely as the percentage of total market capitalization (TMC) declines from the ATH level. According to Cowen, the market cap of all crypto assets is currently down 72% from the ATH level. This is still a few percentage points away from the TMC declines witnessed in the previous two bear markets. The analyst also says that the difference in TMC drops indicates that altcoins will have more downside potential if history repeats itself. Based on this, he makes the following statement:
Last cycle, the overall market cap dropped by about 87%. The previous cycle only dropped about 78%. But this was also when it was mostly just Bitcoin. This discrepancy between 72% and 88% versus 75% and 85% is one of the contributing factors to thinking about why Bitcoin’s dominance is so high. That’s why Bitcoin is still poised to make a persistent upward move.