Popular crypto analysts shared their bottom and top predictions for Bitcoin when we enter 2023.
Bitcoin will increase by 140%
Erik Voorhees is predicting when Bitcoin will hit its next bull run while thinking about 2022. In a new interview with the Bankless podcast, Voorhees says we won’t be waiting another 10 years for the bull market. The ShapeShift CEO says Bitcoin could rise nearly 140% from its current value as soon as this summer. cryptocoin.comAs we mentioned, at the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at $ 16,740.
In his statement, the analyst said:
“It won’t be 10 years. If it takes 10 years for a bull market to materialize, then everything has probably failed. So I’m happy to limit it that way. I think the next six months to three years. I think that’s usually the time it takes for people’s minds to start changing and speculative cycles to return.”
Bear market continues, analyst says
The crypto analyst says the three key patterns are giving signs that Bitcoin’s bear market woes may last longer. DataDash host Nicholas Merten told 512,000 YouTube subscribers that the three models that accurately predicted BTC’s bottom in the past do not indicate a rebound anytime soon. First, the analyst points to the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric, which divides the unrealized profit or loss of Bitcoin investors by the BTC market value.
Merten said in his statement:
“All three of the bottom indicators still show no clear signs of improvement or strength. We got the net unrealized profit/loss which is one of our favorite models here, still in the capitulation zone but still far from what we saw in the previous bear markets.”
Bitcoin will go down
VanEck expects the BTC price to drop to the $10,000-12,000 range in the first quarter of 2023. The investment giant also expects several minor bankruptcies to occur, which will mark the lowest point of the crypto winter. On the other hand, Bitcoin whale activity is experiencing a huge drop, as reported last week. Therefore, there is not much catalyst for BTC price to move forward. Along with VanEck’s prediction, on-chain data also shows weakness in BTC price as of the current date.
In his latest forecast, VanEck stated that the Bitcoin price could recover by the second half of 2023. He also reported that its price would rise to $30,000. However, it is about 80% of its current price, and it could yield over 100% if it drops to $12,000.
BTC MVRV Rate
JA Maartun believes that BTC is under ‘heavy’ value as he has defended this claim recently. In his analysis, Maartun highlighted Bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio. The MVRV Ratio is used to determine how overvalued or undervalued an asset is based on the ratio of an asset’s market value to its realized value.
#Bitcoin is heavily undervalued. This only happend 4 times earlier in the ENTIRE history of #BTC ?
▶️ November 2011
▶️ January 2015
▶️ December 2018
▶️ March 2020https://t.co/h1zcMKOjba pic.twitter.com/4AdZxGFBTq— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) January 1, 2023
The data shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio has dropped below 1 for the first time in 2 years. Historically, an MVRV Ratio below 1 denotes a possible market floor. According to the chart, Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio has only fallen below 1 four times in the past: November 2011, January 2015, December 2018, and March 2020.
Bitcoin weekly activity
Delphi Digital, a leading market research provider, recently highlighted the price action relative to BTC’s 200-week Moving Average. A chart released by Delphi Digital shows that BTC price has dropped below the 200-week MA for the first time in history.
#BTC has lost its 200-week Moving Average which historically served as support for price to find a floor. pic.twitter.com/tXHOvrAO8N
— Delphi Digital (@Delphi_Digital) January 1, 2023
The 200-week MA has historically acted as a support in finding a price floor for BTC. Market watchers also noticed the pattern in the lower stages of early 2015 and late 2018. A corresponding return has always occurred. In addition, Delphi Digital noted that widespread sales throughout the year pushed BTC into oversold territory on its 14-month Relative Strength Index (RSI). Speaking about the asset’s dire trajectory in 2022, prominent bitcoin influencer and investor Jason Williams pointed out that since its inception, BTC has never printed consecutive annual loss candles. Basing his claim on this metric, Williams predicted a positive 2023 for the asset.
It’s too early for the bottom
Despite these bullish claims, analyst MAC_D believes it is too early to see the bottom. In a CryptoQuant quick review post, MAC_D acknowledged that several indicators, including the MVRV Ratio and NUPL, indicate that BTC is undervalued and bottoming out. Despite this, he noted that these indicators are useful in determining the overall stage of the market, but not in determining the detailed buying time. He suggested leveraging BTC’s Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) indicator to get an accurate picture of the asset’s position.
Referring to a CryptoQuant analyst friend, MAC_D pointed out that the Bitcoin bottom usually forms when the UTXOs in the asset’s profit and loss indicators intersect. According to him, this has happened in the last three halvings. However, he underlined that the indicator is not currently showing a crosshair. Therefore, BTC is not in low value regions. From here, MAC_D predicted further decline in BTC’s price. Similarly, Santiment recently claimed that BTC will trade sideways or lower for the next 6 to 12 months.
