Bitcoin (BTC) price has been rising above an ascending support line since late 2018. However, the leading crypto has been bearish from its all-time high for 364 days. However, no one is sure whether it has reached the bottom. Crypto analyst Valdrin Tahiri is looking for the end of the winter market in BTC’s technical picture. Another crypto analyst predicts a bull run in 2023.
What’s next for Bitcoin in 2023 and beyond?
BTC confirms low, long-term ascending support line. Also, the indicator has created a bullish bias on the weekly RSI (green line) after breaking out of the oversold zone. Bull divergences on the weekly timeframe are very rare. However, the RSI has not yet broken above the bearish trendline (black). Whichever trendline breaks first, it will likely determine the direction of the trend.
BTC weekly chart / Source: TradingViewIf Bitcoin price does not break from the ascending support line, it is possible to recover in 2023. If crypto price breaks, it is likely to fall back to test the previous horizontal support and the (dashed) long-term ascending support line near $12,000.
A unique bear market
Technical analysis data is not bullish yet. However, the cyclical periods associated with the halving suggest that soon BTC will reach a bottom. Historically, BTC hit a bottom 517-547 days before halving. Meanwhile, only 491 days left until the next halving.
Also, for the first time in history, all four of the quarterly candles will be bearish unless the BTC price closes above $19,422 on January 1, 2023. Only three days left until the quarter close. Therefore, this probability is high. Therefore, the current bear market is already in unprecedented territory.
Another Bitcoin price analysis can be done by measuring the number of days from the all-time high to the low. It took 410 days to reach the bottom in the 2013-2015 bear market. In the 2017-2018 market recession, it took 363 days. If Bitcoin bottoms out in November 2022, that means the bear market lasted 364 days. And if it hasn’t reached a bottom yet, the bear market has been going on for 413 days. In that case, it will be the longest crypto bear market to date.
BTC weekly chart / Source: TradingViewHowever, the disadvantage in terms of percentage loss is not unique. BTC price fell 86% in the 2014/2015 bear market. It also fell 83% in 2018. The current BTC price is down 77% from its all-time high. So in that context, this has been the lightest bear market ever.
Is Bitcoin going bull run in 2023?
Aurelien Ohayon, CEO of strategic services platform XOR, published a study on Dec. Accordingly, Bitcoin’s previous bull runs occurred every four years. In this particular example, he noted that the first bull market started in 2011, followed by another drop in 2014 and then a rebound in 2015. In fact, after the crypto winter season of 2018, Ohayon pointed out that 2019 would lay the groundwork for another Bitcoin bull run.
Therefore, if past trends are an indicator, 2023 could serve as a basis for a Bitcoin bull run. According to Ohayon’s research on Bitcoin’s technical data, bear markets do not last more than a year.
#BITCOIN BULL RUN STARTS.
Bull runs occur every 4 years :
2011, 2015, 2019, 2023. pic.twitter.com/1LjO6rFLHG
— TAnalyst (@AurelienOhayon) December 28, 2022
There are other reports that paint a brighter picture for the leading crypto. According to the data, crypto researchers expect the price to reach $100,000 around March 2024, which is close to when the supply of Bitcoin will halve. They predict that the next halving of the Bitcoin supply will occur at block 840K. Also, after the event, the block reward will decrease from 6.25 to 3.125 tokens. This means a reduction of about a third.
Looking at historical statistics, analysts discovered that the world’s first BTC price increased by 1.263% between the Bitcoin halvings in 2016 and 2020. If current trends continue like this, Bitcoin (BTC) price will reach $120,263 on March 23, 2024. cryptocoin.comAs you follow, Bitcoin is currently trading at $ 16,660.
