Bitcoin Forecast: Will the Story of 2019 Be Repeated in 2023?


Now we have stepped into a new year again. Market participants’ hopes seem to be budding once again. So will the leading crypto Bitcoin (BTC) move along the same wave or will the bear trend dominate this year? Crypto analyst Lavina Daryanani takes a look at the overall picture for the 2023 Bitcoin prediction.

What awaits Bitcoin in 2023? As you follow, Bitcoin reached a peak of $ 69 thousand in November last year. However, later on, its price started to witness a major correction. However, a section of society believes that the new year will bring momentum. Thus, the leader thinks that crypto will turn the situation around. However, such a scenario did not materialize. Bears dominated throughout the year, and most of the rescue efforts initiated were inconclusive.

It’s hard to say anything for sure. However, analyzing past trends and comparing current conditions can give us a reasonable clue. Looking at the charts, Bitcoin price movements to 2022 look like a copy or mirror image of 2018. As shown below, Bitcoin reached its then peak in December 2017. From that price to the end-of-2018 level, BTC has lost almost 82% of its value. Last year, the peak was reached in November instead of December. Since then, the price has dropped almost 76%.

Meanwhile, the first and last week of January 2019 has been pretty low. However, it showed some improvement in the middle of the two weeks. With one exception in February, it recorded successive green candles on a weekly basis. It started to build momentum on that. Thus, at the end of the quarter, Bitcoin was ready to rise.

Source: TradingView

Looking closer, it turns out that January 2019 was an unbelievable month for Bitcoin. During the month, there was only a 10% deviation in price. But after that, things started to change for the better. History doesn’t always repeat itself. However, it necessarily rhymes. In other words, if Bitcoin follows the same path, it is possible that January 2023 will pass slowly. Finally, the bears can be expected to give up and a similar story could be written in 2019.

Source: TradingView

What does on-chain data show for Bitcoin prediction?

Also, the NUPL indicator signaled a trend reversal. This indicator basically looks at the difference between unrealized profit and unrealized loss to determine whether the network as a whole is in profit or loss. Values ​​below zero indicate that the network is in a net loss state. Also, the opposite is true.

As shown below, the current negative value is in line with the value recorded in the 2018-19 transition period. This indicates that Bitcoin is facing a period of strong investor capitulation that has led to a correction. Over time, the negative value in this indicator began to reverse, and the momentum began to increase. Over time, the recovery of 2019 took place. At this stage, the red bars on the chart began to shorten. Presumably, this indicates that Bitcoin’s recovery is imminent.

Source: CryptoQuant


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