The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been trending recently. This trend could be a boon for SPX and the cryptocurrency market. Let’s see what the latest situation in the market points to DOGE, XRP, BTC and 5 selected altcoins.
How about stocks, US dollars, DOGE and cryptocurrencies?
In 2022, the S&P 500 index (SPX) fell 19.4% and the Nasdaq was 33.1%, their worst performance since 2008. The crypto market also had a terrible year with Bitcoin. By contrast, the perceived safe-haven US dollar was up nearly 9%, its best performance since 2015.
Meanwhile, there are several green shoots visible for the 2023 cryptocurrency market. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which often moves in inverse correlation with Bitcoin, may have peaked. This raises the possibility that certain cryptocurrencies are close to making a bottom.
So, in the above environment, can the US Dollar Index continue to correct and will this benefit risky assets? Let’s take a look at analyst Rakesh Upadhyay’s technical analysis to find out.
On the SPX chart, the bears tried to extend the correction last week but the bulls managed to hold the 3,764 level. This shows that the bulls are trying to make a higher bottom in the S&P 500 index.
The 20-day EMA of 3,880 is tilting down and the RSI is close to 45, suggesting that the bears have a slight advantage. If the bulls want to gain the upper hand, they will have to push the price above the moving averages. This could open the doors for a possible rebound to the downtrend line, where the bears can once again form a strong defense. Buyers will have to pierce this resistance to signal a potential trend change.
Conversely, if the price drops from the 20-day EMA and dips below 3,764, selling could intensify and the index could drop to 3,650.
Buyers tried to push the US Dollar Index above the 20-day EMA (104) on Dec. 28, but the bears held their ground. This indicates that sentiment has turned negative and investors are selling in relief rallies.
The bears pulled the price below the immediate support of 103.44 on Dec. 30, indicating the resumption of the downtrend. The index can then drop to 102 and then reach the psychologically important 100 level. This negative view may be invalidated in the near term if the price rises from the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA. The index could then rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($106).
Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $16,256 and $17,061 for the past few days. This tight consolidation shows the indecision between the bulls and bears.
The 20-day EMA ($16,777) is flattening, with the RSI just below the midpoint, indicating an equilibrium between supply and demand. The next trend move is likely to start after the price breaks out of the range. If the price breaks below $16,256, selling could accelerate and BTC price could retest the critical support at $15,476.
Alternatively, BTC price could accelerate towards the overhead resistance at $18,388 if the price rises above $17,061. This level can again be the scene of a tough fight between bulls and bears. According to the forecasts of different analysts cryptocoin.comWe have included it in this article.
The bulls have failed to move the ETH price. The fact that they’ve been above the moving averages over the past few days, but have left no ground for the bears, is an encouraging sign.
This indicates that the bulls will make another attempt to push the price above the moving averages. If successful, ETH price could rise to the stiff overhead resistance at $1,352. The bears are likely to maintain this level with great zeal.
If the bulls fail to break through the overall hurdle in the moving averages, ETH price could drop to the critical $1,150 support. $1,150 is an important level for the bulls to protect as a break below it will complete a head and shoulders pattern with a target of $948.
BNB Coin (BNB)
BNB has been trading near the $250 breakout level for the past few days. This shows that while the bears are trying to turn the level into resistance, the bulls are trying to push the price above it again.
This narrow-range movement is unlikely to continue for long. The longer the price stays in the narrow range, the stronger the eventual breakout will be. If buyers push the price above the $250 to $255 overhead resistance zone, BNB price could rally to $270 for 50 days. This level can act as a minor hurdle but if exceeded, the price could rise to $300.
In the meantime, the bears may have other plans. They will try to maintain the overhead zone and push the price below $236. If they do, the BNB price could drop to $220 and then to $200.
XRP dropped below the support line of the symmetrical triangle and declined below the strong support at $0.30. The long-tail candle indicates that the bulls are aggressively buying the dip to $0.30.
XRP price then re-entered the triangle and the bulls are trying to gain momentum by pushing the price above $0.35. If they do, XRP price could reach the resistance line. If the bulls rise to this level, the price could bounce back to $0.42.
Conversely, if the price fails to stay above the 20-day EMA, it will show that the bears continue to sell on each rally. The bears will then try again to push the price below the support line of the triangle.
Dogecoin price broke on December 30 and closed below the $0.07 support. However, it has proven to be a bear trap. The bulls bought lower and pushed the price back above $0.07 on Dec. 31.
Buying increased further on January 2 and the bulls are attempting to strengthen their position by pushing the price above the downtrend line. If they manage to do so, DOGE price could challenge the resistance around $0.08. A break above this level could trigger a stop-loss from the aggressive bears, resulting in a short-term squeeze. DOGE could climb to $0.11 later.
This positive view may be in vain if the price breaks down from the current level and breaks below the intraday low of December 30. DOGE could then decline to the main support near $0.05.
Cardano has started to recover and the price is approaching $0.26. A positive divergence in the RSI indicates that selling pressure may be easing.
The 20-day EMA is an important level to watch. If buyers break this resistance, ADA price could rally to the $0.29 breakout level. If this level also scales, it could touch the downtrend line.
On the contrary, if the price drops from the 20-day EMA once again, it will indicate that the bears are active at higher levels. ADA may then fall to the support line where buyers can step in to stop the decline.
MATIC fell below $0.75 on Dec. 30, but the bears failed to take advantage and push the price towards the critical support of $0.69.
The bulls are attempting to start a relief rally at the moving averages that may face selling. If the price turns down from this resistance, it will show that higher highs are attracting selling by the bears. This could increase the possibility of a drop to $0.69.
On the other hand, if the bulls push the price above the moving averages, MATIC price could rally to $0.97. This level can act as a strong barrier again, but if the bulls break it, the next stop will likely be $1.05.
Litecoin rose above the moving averages and overhead resistance at $75 in January. This shows that buyers are trying to take control.
If the price stays above $75, LTC could rise to $85. This level could act as a minor resistance, but if exceeded, the price could accelerate and skyrocket to the psychologically vital $100 level. If the bulls fail to sustain the price above $75, the pair could drop to the moving averages. If the price bounces back from this support, the probability of a break above the overhead resistance increases. The bears will take advantage if the price turns back and falls below the moving averages.