Cycle Analysis Surprised: Bitcoin Hits These Levels in April!


According to crypto analyst Jakub Dziadkowiec, if Bitcoin has already reached the bottom of the bear market, it has completed a 5-wave Elliott correction. The analyst sets the target for the upward movement of the BTC price in mid-2023. Also, the analyst notes that given the upcoming halving, BTC could reach significant resistance at an early date. We have prepared Jakub Dziadkowiec’s Bitcoin cycle analysis and predictions for our readers.

Bitcoin started 2023 with high hopes… As you follow, Bitcoin (BTC) had a very tiring and bearish year, where its price fell 64%. After that, cryptocurrency market participants have high expectations for 2023. Bear markets were a period of accumulation with mostly sideways price movements. However, each of these periods saw an interesting range of several months right after the BTC price macro bottom. It always led to a relatively large upward move and a local top being reached, followed by another correction. As a result of this, BTC price formed a higher bottom on the long-term chart, after which the true bull market began.

In today’s analysis, we will try to predict the price and timing for the potential peak of BTC price in 2023, with a possible upward move. We will do this based on historical data, the Bitcoin cycles hypothesis and similarities, and Fibonacci retracement levels. At the same time, the analysis assumes that the $15,495 level reached on November 21, 2022 is the macro base of the current bear market. This assumption is not entirely correct. Also, if we see lower BTC prices in 2023, it could quickly go wrong. However, it is necessary to anticipate targets for potential upward movement soon.

Bitcoin history corrections and accumulations

Looking at the trading history of the BTC price, we see 4 major bear markets that have occurred over the years: 2011, 2014, 2018 and 2022. According to the Bitcoin extension cycles hypothesis, each successive bear market has lasted longer. But at the same time, time led to a smaller percentage drop in BTC price. Next, we note that the declines in each bear market take the form of an ABC correction according to Elliott Wave theory. Even the most recent bear market of 2022 could be caught in this form of correction. However, it should be assumed that the bull market peak is reached not at $69,000 in November 2022, but at $64,500 in April 2022. Of course, the second assumption results in a rather unusual form of ABC correction. Despite this, many technical indicators in the cryptocurrency market agree with on-chain data, social activity and sentiment.

However, if anyone disagrees with this assumption that Bitcoin reaches a higher price at the end of 2021, then the bear market can be correctly expressed as a 5-wave Elliott impulse. Significantly, both wave count scenarios suggest that the current levels of BTC price may correspond to the macro floor of this cycle.

BTC price chart / Source: Tradingview

Then, after reaching a macro bottom, we see Bitcoin initiate a stronger (in 2012 and 2019) or a weaker (2015) upward move. It always led to a local peak below the previously reached all-time high (green circles). This peak was always followed by another major correction (red circles). It formed a higher floor of the Bitcoin price, ending the accumulation period and starting the true bull market. It is worth adding that all this happened before the next halving (blue lines).

Local highs after a bear market

We can then measure the time from the macro base of historical declines to the next local peak. So we get the following data: 77 days in 2011-12, 175 days in 2015 and 196 days in 2019 (blue date ranges).

According to the Bitcoin extension cycles hypothesis, the local peak after a macro bottom is reached over an increasingly long period of time. Thus, if it extends now, it can be assumed that it will reach the bottom about 215 days later. However, if the cycle has not lengthened, the next peak will occur after 150 days, averaging over past periods. This gives us a date range from April 17 to June 26, 2023. This is where Bitcoin could reach a hypothetical local top.

BTC price chart / Source: Tradingview

We also superimpose the logarithmic Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous bear markets to determine the price range of this move. Historically, the bullish action following the macro floor of BTC price has reached the 0.5 Fib level in 2011-12, the 0.382 Fib level in 2015 and the 0.618 Fib level in 2019. Therefore, we can take the 0.382-0.618 Fib range as a possible target for Bitcoin’s upcoming bullish move. This corresponds to the price range of $ 27,500 – $ 39,000.

Bitcoin price peak at $33,000 in April 2023

Summarizing the above analysis, we get a date range from April 17 to June 26, 2023 and a price range of $27,500 to $39,000. This is the area on the chart (blue rectangle) where Bitcoin could reach a local peak in 2023. However, a fix will follow. However, if someone who wants to further determine the time and price of a potential top would go a step further, they could refer to the upcoming halving. According to the latest data, this event is predicted for the end of March 2024.

Historically, we observe that the local top after the macro low of the BTC price reached 47, 52 and 46 weeks before the halving (green date ranges), respectively (chart above). On average, we get a 48-week period before the next halving where the local top should appear. This period coincides with April 24, 2023, which is in the starting part of the range we have determined.

On the other hand, regarding the projected price of Bitcoin, we can take the average 0.5 Fib retracement level as the most likely price for an upward move in 2023. This equates to a price of about $33,000. This level corresponds to both the historical data of previous cycles and the long-term support area (blue arrows) for BTC price in 2021. At this time, it can be expected to act as resistance. As such, it probably won’t be easily overcome in one fell swoop. Also because of this, a strong correction may follow.

Thus, we get a Bitcoin price prediction of $33,000 (red area) for April 24, 2023. It should be emphasized that this is a very optimistic scenario and it is highly unlikely that it will happen. However, if Bitcoin cycles rhyme, halving still sets the rhythm of the entire crypto market, and logarithmic Fib retracements can be relied upon, this is a viable scenario.

BTC price chart / Source: Tradingview


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