Bitcoin (BTC) is underperforming along with all major risk assets amid global economic troubles. Still, some analysts believe that the leading crypto may have already seen the worst phase of the current cycle and is poised for a comeback. Others say that the ground is not yet suitable.
What do the six-month Bitcoin candles show?
Dan Gambardello, founder of Crypto Capital Venture, shared a Bitcoin chart that shows the six-month candles for Bitcoin and the last three crypto bear markets, including the one currently going through. The red arrows he placed on the chart show that green candles appeared after the red candles that drove the Bitcoin price down significantly six months later. This has already happened after the bear markets in 2015 and 2018. Now, according to the chart clues, a green candle is forming for Bitcoin.
People think this bear market has been worse than others, but it hasn't been.
These are 6 month #Bitcoin candles. On track. Zoom out. pic.twitter.com/2a0qo0cmH2
— Dan Gambardello (@cryptorecruitr) January 1, 2023
Max Keizer predicts BTC will hit $100,000 this year
Famous Bitcoiner Max Keiser shared his predictions for 2023. Among them was Bitcoin reaching $100,000. Also, there were two more countries that would adopt BTC as a legal tender. In addition, he claimed that BTC will become a key election issue in the 2023 US elections.
It was later revealed that Keizer shared Bitcoin predictions for 2023 with Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador, who accepted Bitcoin as a legal tender in 2021. In fact, Bukele initially predicted that two more countries would adopt BTC in early 2022. However, his prediction did not come true.
My 2023 predictions on #Bitcoin
•Will reach $100k
•2 more countries will adopt it as legal tender
•Will become a major electoral issue in US elections this year
•Bitcoin City will commence construction
•Volcano bonds will be oversubscribed
•Huge surprise at @TheBitcoinConf pic.twitter.com/U7hvS8Ieix— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) December 31, 2022
cryptocoin.com As you follow from Max Keiser, even before this tweet, he has claimed many times that Bitcoin will reach the $100,000 level. Meanwhile, he enumerated the classic reasons that every Bitcoin maxi quotes from time to time when describing Bitcoin’s superiority over other cryptocurrencies. The most popular of these is that BTC has a limited supply of 21 million. It is also important that more than 18 million have already been mined.
According to metrics Bitcoin saw worst phase of cycle
Bitcoin MVRV rate
JA Maartun, a CryptoQuant author, believes BTC is under ‘heavy’ value. In his analysis, Maartun considers Bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio. The MVRV Ratio is used to determine how overvalued or undervalued an asset is based on the ratio of an asset’s market value to its realized value.
#Bitcoin is heavily undervalued. This only happend 4 times earlier in the ENTIRE history of #BTC ?
▶️ November 2011
▶️ January 2015
▶️ December 2018
▶️ March 2020https://t.co/h1zcMKOjba pic.twitter.com/4AdZxGFBTq— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) January 1, 2023
The data shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio has dropped below 1 for the first time in 2 years. Historically, an MVRV Ratio below 1 denotes a possible market floor. According to the chart, Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio has only fallen below 1 four times in the past. These are: in November 2011, January 2015, December 2018 and March 2020. Meanwhile, Maartun conducted a survey on how BTC will perform by the end of the year. 65% of 405 respondents stated that the price of Bitcoin will rise.
Additional indicators
Market researcher Delphi Digital recently highlighted the price action relative to BTC’s 200-week Moving Average. The chart shared by Delphi Digital shows that BTC price has dropped below the 200-week MA for the first time in history.
#BTC has lost its 200-week Moving Average which historically served as support for price to find a floor. pic.twitter.com/tXHOvrAO8N
— Delphi Digital (@Delphi_Digital) January 1, 2023
The 200-week MA has historically acted as support in finding a price floor for BTC. Market watchers also noticed the pattern in the lower stages of early 2015 and late 2018. A corresponding return has always occurred. In addition, Delphi Digital noted that widespread sales throughout the year pushed BTC into oversold territory on its 14-month Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Speaking about the asset’s dire trajectory in 2022, prominent Bitcoin influencer and investor Jason Williams pointed out that since its inception, BTC has never printed consecutive annual losing candles. Basing his claim on this metric, Williams predicted a positive 2023 for the asset.
An opinion against the general consensus for Bitcoin
Despite these bullish claims, analyst MAC_D says it’s still too early to see the bottom. However, the analyst acknowledges that many indicators, including the MVRV Ratio and NUPL, indicate that BTC is below its value and bottoming out. However, he notes that these indicators are useful in determining the general stage of the market, but not in determining the detailed buying time. He suggests making use of BTC’s Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) indicator to get an accurate picture of the asset’s position.
MAC_D refers to a CryptoQuant analyst friend. In line with this, he points out that the Bitcoin bottom usually forms when the UTXOs in the asset’s profit and loss indicators intersect. According to him, this has happened in the last three halvings. However, he highlights that the indicator is not currently showing a crosshair. Therefore, he says that BTC is not in the low value regions. From here, MAC_D predicts further declines in BTC’s price. Similarly, Santiment recently claimed that BTC will trade sideways or lower for the next 6 to 12 months.
