Key Developments of the Week and BTC Technical Analysis: December 19-25


Last week, we left behind the last central bank meetings of the year. While the US, European and UK central banks decided to increase by 50 basis points, the economic projections announced by the members were perceived as hawks by the market.

While the Fed’s 2023 Federal Funding Ratio was 4.4 – 4.9 in September, this ratio was reduced to 5.1 – 5.4 in December, resulting in a decrease in the global risk appetite increase due to recession concerns. The US Dollar declined, we saw heavy sales in global markets and cryptocurrency exchanges.

Comment of the Week

Winter continues in the crypto markets. On Friday, December 16, withdrawals were suspended on the OKX exchange due to the inability of Alibaba Cloud to serve in the last hours. After this development, Bitcoin declined to the levels of 16,500 USD.

After the problems created by the FTX crisis in the crypto world, we saw that the regulators started to speed things up. The New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) has prepared a guide on what to do before offering any crypto-related service. Let’s not forget that these developments are of great importance in order to restore trust in the crypto market again and quickly.

This week, we can spend a relatively quiet week as there is little time left for the new year. We will follow the central bank interest rate decision in Turkey, national income, housing sales and personal consumption expenditures in the USA, the IFO index in Germany, and national income data in the UK.

Important Developments of the Week We Will Follow

Wednesday, December 21, 2022:

– US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence (Dec) Expectation: 101.0 Previous: 100.2 – 18.00 CET

Thursday, December 22, 2022:

– TC Central Bank Interest Decision – 14.00

– US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (3rd Quarter) Expected: 2.9% Previous: 2.9% – 16.30 CEST

– Applications for U.S. Unemployment Benefits Expected: 225K Previous: 211K – 16.30 CEST

Friday, December 23, 2022:

– USA Core Personal Consumption Expenses Price List (Monthly) Expectation: 0.2% Previous: 0.2% – 16.30 TSI

Bitcoin Technical View

Bitcoin, which reached the level of 18,600 with the moderate weather in the markets last week, fell hard with the Fed’s economic projection perceiving the hawk. With the negative news that followed, Bitcoin closed the week on the downside.

Our important support level is 15.400, where our blue box is located in the daily. To protect this level, daily candle closings can be followed. In order for the price to move to the red box zone, the yellow box zone must be won by making daily closes above the 18.100 level.

Bitcoin Trade Density

Transaction density compares the value of the transactions in the order book with the foreign currency entries. Increase in trade intensity; indicates that more market investors are willing to buy rather than sell.

The median trade density of Bitcoin in the last day is 6.23, above the 90-day average.

Bitcoin Price

The price typically rises when market sentiment is positive, when demand for assets increases, and when the supply of available-for-purchase assets decreases, but vice versa, the price usually falls.

Bitcoin’s last daily close was $16,740 below the 180-day average. Daily closings above this average of the price will have positive effects for the rise, but closings below may increase the decline.

Last Week’s Top Rising Cryptocurrencies

  1. Toncoin (TON) 29.6%
  2. XDC Network (XDC) 12.2%
  3. OKC (OCT) 10.1%
  4. OCD (OCD) 2.8%
  5. Bitcoin SV (BSV) 1.5%

Last Week’s Featured Crypto News

Mazars Reportedly Stopping Crypto Studies : According to the news in Forbes, Armanino, who is in the case of litigation because he missed the inspections of FTX US, stopped its work in this field. After this move, it is stated that Mazars decided to withdraw.

Argentina Province to Issue Dollar-pegged Stablecoins : In the Argentinean state of San Luis, the bill for the issuance of a dollar-pegged stablecoin has been approved. The bill also authorizes local artists to issue NFTs to encourage financial and cultural participation.

Research Shows Strong Investors Are Turning To Cryptocurrencies : It turned out that customers with high wealth are not affected by the fear atmosphere in the crypto money market. The research included 537 financial advisors in the United States. The interest of 35 percent of these people in cryptocurrencies has increased considerably in the last year. The remaining 30 percent stated that they have crypto assets.

Bitcoin Price Prediction for the First Quarter of 2023 from VanEck“Bitcoin will test $10,000-12,000 in Q1 amid a wave of miner bankruptcies that will mark the lowest point of the crypto winter,” Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, said in his 2023 outlook.


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