As Bitcoin price approaches $16,000, a study says it’s ‘not yet undervalued’. CryptoQuant states that an indicator that tracks trades in profit and loss has not reached the bottom of the bear market.
Is Bitcoin price historically at the end of a bear market?
An on-chain analyst shared bearish signals of a BTC price indicator in a blog post on Dec. Accordingly, the profitability indicator lacks the key cross. BTC is currently approaching the region where it had bottomed out in the previous bear markets, down 80% from the ATH price. As MAC_D from CryptoQuant notes, there is no shortage of instruments that are already showing the 2022 bear market bottom that is taking shape.
But despite this, not all signs are pointing in that direction. Trades in profit and loss warn that cheaper BTC prices could still come in. Unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) on CryptoQuant’s profit and loss indicator currently show around 30% of trades executed at a loss.
“The bottom was formed during the last three BTC halvings, when the Profit and Loss indicators UTXOs crossed,” MAC_D explains. Some of their analysis is as follows:
However, currently this indicator does not show a cross and does not indicate that BTC is undervalued.
In whose favor is the historical data?
An accompanying chart shows previous crossovers that only rarely occurred in June 2016 and May 2020. The latter came after the COVID-19 cross-market crash in March 2020 and also coincided with Bitcoin’s latest block subsidy halving. “It will provide a clear buying timing when crossed,” MAC_D says. It also adds:
Therefore, BTC is likely to drop further and spot hedging and downtrend are needed.
Analysts say maximum pain has not yet come for Bitcoin
CryptoQuant was not alone when it comes to concerns that BTC price action could get worse before it gets better. Various theories among popular analysts predict a much deeper bear market bottom than current prices. This is potentially coming from $10,000 or lower.
As a potential glimmer of hope, there is the possibility of reaching $22,000 in the first quarter of 2023. This level will act as a magnet, signaling the beginning of the recovery. BTC is currently trading at weekly lows before the new year, according to TradingView data.
cryptocoin.com As you follow, some analysts emphasized the support of 12 thousand dollars. This level will mark the breaking of 2022 highs for Bitcoin. BTC is currently still breaking the $16,000 support. Right now all eyes are on January and February 2023.